Polls

Texas Senate - Cruz vs. O'Rourke

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Candidates

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Beto O'Rourke

Beto O'Rourke (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Texas Snapshot

RCP Average: Cruz +7.0
RCP Ranking: 
Leans GOP
Key 2018 Races:
 Governor | TX-7TX-21TX-23TX-32

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2016: President | TX-23
2014
Governor | SenateTX-23 | TX-34
2012
President | Senate | TX-14 | TX-23
2010Gov | TX-15 | TX-17 | TX-23 | TX-25 | TX-27
2008: President | Senate | TX-22
2006: Governor | Senate | TX-22
2004: President | TX-19 | TX-32

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Cruz (R)
O'Rourke (D)
Spread
RCP Average10/1 - 10/13----50.843.8Cruz +7.0
CNNCNN10/9 - 10/13716 LV4.55245Cruz +7
NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena10/8 - 10/11800 LV3.65143Cruz +8
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac10/3 - 10/9730 LV4.45445Cruz +9
CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov10/2 - 10/5881 LV--5044Cruz +6
Emerson*Emerson*10/1 - 10/5500 LV4.54742Cruz +5

All Texas Senate - Cruz vs. O'Rourke Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Texas Senate - Cruz vs. O'Rourke
Texas Senate - Cruz vs. O'Rourke
50.8
Cruz (R)+7.0
43.8
O'Rourke (D)
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Race Analysis

9/25/2018 -- The latest Quinnipiac puts Cruz ahead by a comfortable 54-45 margin.  If you look at the polling data as a whole, the polls with more undecideds tend to show a close race, while pollsters who push undecideds harder show a Cruz lead.  This is consistent with a storyline suggesting that there are a large number of undecideds, perhaps intrigued by the Beto phenomeon, but who nevertheless lean Republicans.  But in this chaotic environment, we should still consider the race a tossup overall.

9/13/18 -- Beto O’Rourke has kept the race close, albeit in part on the basis of an Emerson poll showing over 20 percent of the electorate undecided.  Nevertheless, this race is going to drain Republican resources, and Ted Cruz could very much lose this.

----------Race Preview----------

The rise of the Republican Party in the Lone Star State is a fascinating tale of how one party consistently bit off its nose to spite its face. Texas always had a small Republican Party in the panhandle, in the German counties north of San Antonio, and later in the growing suburbs of Dallas and Houston. But the two-party system mostly played out among Democrats. It was divided between conservative Tory Democrats, who plotted to depose Franklin Roosevelt as the Democratic nominee in 1944 and who supported President Eisenhower in the 1950s, and the liberal Democrats.

When LBJ was elected vice president, a conservative Democrat was appointed to replace him. In the ensuing special election, liberal Democrats either stayed home or cast a protest vote for Republican John Tower, whom they figured they could easily defeat down the road. The same dynamic played out in 1966, and by 1972 Tory Democrats were defecting to the Republican Party, while the Republicans' native base in the suburbs continued to grow.

Today the Republicans have controlled the governorship for 18 straight years, and both Senate seats for 19.  The Democratic Party still maintains strength, and may even regain majority party status in the future.  Sen. Ted Cruz faces a credible challenge against Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, and the state swung heavily toward Hillary Clinton last fall.  The state is also, contrary to many expectations, heavily urban, so a swing toward Democrats in the suburbs could have an outsize effect here.  O’Rourke starts as the underdog, but this one is worth watching.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoE
Cruz (R)
O'Rourke (D)
Spread
RCP Average10/1 - 10/13----50.843.8Cruz +7.0
CNNCNN10/9 - 10/13716 LV4.55245Cruz +7
NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena10/8 - 10/11800 LV3.65143Cruz +8
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac10/3 - 10/9730 LV4.45445Cruz +9
CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov10/2 - 10/5881 LV--5044Cruz +6
Emerson*Emerson*10/1 - 10/5500 LV4.54742Cruz +5
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac9/11 - 9/17807 LV4.15445Cruz +9
CBS 11/Dixie StrategiesDixie Strategies9/6 - 9/7519 LV4.34642Cruz +4
EmersonEmerson8/22 - 8/25550 RV4.43938Cruz +1
NBC News/MaristNBC/Marist8/12 - 8/16759 RV3.84945Cruz +4
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac7/26 - 7/311138 RV3.54943Cruz +6
Texas Lyceum*Texas Lyceum*7/9 - 7/26441 LV4.74139Cruz +2
GravisGravis7/3 - 7/7602 LV4.05142Cruz +9
CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov6/19 - 6/22821 LV--5040Cruz +10
UT/Texas Tribune*UT/Texas Tribune*6/8 - 6/171200 RV2.84136Cruz +5
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac5/23 - 5/29961 RV3.85039Cruz +11
JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics5/19 - 5/21575 LV4.14740Cruz +7
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac4/12 - 4/171029 RV3.64744Cruz +3