Head over to the RCP Blog for a live election night thread on the races in New Jersey, Virginia, New York and elsewhere. Mike and I, as well as our RCP colleagues, will be updating it throughout the night.

Mike is in New Jersey and I'm in Virginia.

PARAMUS, N.J. -- As the national party and the White House downplay the implications of today's vote, Gov. Jon Corzine (D) fired up a labor rally here by saying his re-election would give a boost to the Obama agenda in Washington.

Joined by national labor leaders, Corzine specifically brought up the fight over the Employee Free Choice Act, and said: "We want to send a message to America that in the most labor friendly state in America, we're returning the governor no matter how tough times are."

Several hundred workers attended the lunch-time rally, some greeting him by asking if he was "Fired up," an Obama campaign credo. The governor, saying this was "the last election I run in," said the union's GOTV efforts were critical not just for his future but the president's.

"Our president is working for a national health care program," he said. "He needs our help so that he can tell the Congress there is no lack of support out in the countryside. We stand with our president."

He surprised even some in the union hall with some salty language, saying Obama has already begun to "stop that trickle-down economic stuff that got us into this damn mess from the Bush people."

"We will have things going in the right direction," he said.

Corzine then went to a local diner, where actor Abe Vigoda also made an appearance.

RICHMOND -- OK, sound checks are part of the process of setting up an election night party, especially one most expect to be of the victorious sort. But there's only so many times you probably need to play the following refrain:

"I gotta feeling, I gotta feeling, I gotta feeling / that tonight's gonna be a good night, that tonight's gonna be a good night, that tonight's gonna be a good good night / I gotta feeling."

And the Deeds campaign just released another turnout report from campaign manager Joe Abbey:

"Our afternoon reports have shown that Charlottesville continues to be a bright spot for Deeds turnout today, with numbers running way ahead of targets. Democratic turnout has surged in Roanoke over the past several hours and we are hitting our targets in Democratic precincts in that market. And turnout continue to look strong in key precincts in Northern Virginia."

Facing daunting polling numbers over the past month, Deeds advisers have continued to say that if they can just get a few hundred thousand Obama surge voters out to the polls they can win this thing. Easier said than done, of course, but it's their one hope and something they pushed pretty hard for the last few days with door knocks and phone banking.

The lack of an energized base in Northern Virginia, as well as the big question mark that is those Obama voters around the state, especially in Hampton Roads, make predicting Deeds' final tally pretty tough.

RICHMOND -- Not much excitement here yet at Bob McDonnell's election night headquarters, downtown in a large hotel ballroom. The Creigh Deeds campaign has set up camp on the outskirts of Richmond -- perhaps analagous to where the candidate will find himself when the polls close at 7 p.m., on the outside looking in.

Hoping for positive, midday media reports, the Deeds campaign released a statement just before 1 p.m. (while this reporter was driving down from D.C.) stating that turnout was looking good in essential counties for statewide Democratic candidates.

"We are seeing encouraging numbers in key parts of the state. Northern and Central Virginia in particular look strong," said Deeds campaign manager Joe Abbey. "The Charlottesville area, which includes areas represented by Creigh Deeds in the state Senate is particularly strong and 10 percent of voters in key Democratic precincts had already voted by 10 AM. Meanwhile, voters in the populous and Democratic precincts of Alexandria and Arlington have been voting at rates well above the average in other parts of the Commonwealth."

Deeds currently trails by 13.4 points in the polls and recent fundraising data shows he's way behind in large donations received over the last two weeks of the campaign.

McDonnell, according to reports compiled by the Virginia Public Access Project, accepted nearly $1.5 million in $5,000+ donations since the last campaign finance filing deadline on Oct. 21. That's three times what Deeds took in, and Deeds started the last two weeks far less dough than McDonnell.

It was evident in Northern Virginia, where McDonnell blanketed the airwaves with ads showing him to be a pragmatic problem solver in Richmond and a candidate for governor -- though it wasn't clear which party he was part of.

NEW YORK-23 (Latest Polls)

*A local paper writes about the big final rallies.

*Scozzafava talks about her decision to drop out, and back the Democrat.

*What to watch for in the race.

NEW JERSEY (RCP Average: Christie +1.0)

*On Election Day, Gov. Jon Corzine's schedule is heavy on labor GOTV events. Chris Christie visits some diners and goes to a local GOP headquarters. Chris Daggett also has some retail stops and does some interviews.

*Expecting a recount? And charges of voter fraud. Gear up for what could be a wild day.

*Judges and attorneys will be on hand in courthouses around the state.

*Democrats admitted that they were behind a robocall praising indie Daggett and knocking Republican Christie.

*The suburbs are key in a state that's mostly suburban.

*Corzine thinks he has momentum.

*Look who joined Christie yesterday: former Gov. Christie Whitman. Also, Tom Kean.

*The Seinfeld of races: A "campaign about nothing"?

VIRGINIA (RCP Average: McDonnell +13.4)

*Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

*Down so far in the polls, Deeds is facing a tougher task of getting out the vote than McDonnell.

*Virginians want "jobs, jobs and more jobs."

*Both candidates swung through Charlottesville yesterday.

*Chuck Todd calls Deeds' campaign "inept."

*Brad Todd says the race came down to the "advertising decisions made by both parties" in Northern Virginia.

*Democratic strategists are preparing to lose all three big races today.

Today is Election Day, and voters are voting as you read this. The major contests to watch are the Congressional race in New York-23, and the down-to-the-wire gubernatorial race in New Jersey. The race in Virginia looks much sleepier, with a likely Republican win. There are also some big races for mayor among the downballot contests nationwide.

In Washington, meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits. She'll meet with President Obama at the White House before heading to Congress to speak to a joint session. Also at the White House, Obama meets with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, and later joins a U.S.-European Union Summit with the Prime Minister of Sweden Fredrik Reinfeldt, President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso, and the European Council High Representative Javier Solana. He'll also sit down with Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), a key vote on health care.

Merkel's address to Congress is at 10:30 am. Outside of that event, the focus on the Hill remains health care, as Democratic House leaders are hoping for a vote on their bill by the end of the week.

Continue reading "Strategy Memo: E-Day 2009" »

FDU has released updated numbers (10/22-11/1, 1,119 LVs, +/-3%) from the governor's race, showing Gov. Jon Corzine (D) narrowly ahead. But we post with an important disclaimer: the results are from a ballot test that did not mention independent candidate Chris Daggett.

General Election Matchup (Daggett Volunteered)
Corzine 43 (-1 vs. last poll, 10/22-28)
Christie 41 (-2)
Daggett 8 (+2)
Don't Know 5 (+1)

In the last survey, Corzine also lead when respondents were given just the two major party candidates. But Christie led in a ballot test that included Daggett.

Also today, Democracy Corps (D) released its latest poll which again shows Corzine in the lead, 41-37-15.

In a statement from the House floor today that is surely already making the rounds in Democratic circles and in the liberal netroots, Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) said Americans should be more fearful of Congress passing the Democrats' health care reform legislation than terrorism.

"I believe that the greatest fear that we all should have to our freedom comes from this room -- this very room and what may happen later this week in terms of a tax increase bill masquerading as a health care bill," Foxx said. "I believe we have more to fear from the potential of that bill passing than we do from any terrorist right now in any country."

National Democratic campaign committees are e-mailing video of the statement by Foxx, of teapot museum earmark fame. Democratic National Committee spokesman Brad Woodhouse called her "an extreme right wing Republican" and criticized her for making such an "outrageous" comparison. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reacted similarly.

"Representative Foxx believes that reducing health care costs for consumers is a greater danger to Americans than terrorists?" asked DCCC spokesman Jesse Ferguson. "It is outrageous that a representative of our nation that was hit by terrorists would have the gall to claim that Americans reducing their health care costs is a greater threat. The question is: Does Virginia Foxx's leadership agree with this Republican extreme right wing ideology?"

With recent polling showing that the top two candidates in New Jersey's gubernatorial race are separated by just a few points, it's no surprise that the campaigns and parties are preparing for the possibility of a recount should the final result be too close to call.

"We certainly have anticipated and prepared for this scenario," said Maria Comella, spokesperson for Republican Chris Christie. Spokesperson Lis Smith said officials in Gov. Jon Corzine's campaign are also "preparing" for a possible recount; both declined to comment further on the nature of those preparations, however.

Robert Giles, director of the New Jersey Division of Elections, said that there is no automatic trigger which would require a recount after Tuesday's vote. Either candidate has 15 days to request that county officials double-check their tallies, and can do so no matter what the margin of victory. Such a request would be made in state Superior Court.

"It's definitely a possibility," Giles said, noting that in 1993 and 1997, the gubernatorial races were decided by fewer than 25,000 votes. The 1981 race was even closer, as Republican Tom Kean was victorious by just an 1,800-vote margin. That was the last time a candidate requested a recount take place (then-Rep. Jim Florio).

Continue reading "Recount In Jersey? Candidates, Parties Planning For One" »

SurveyUSA's latest poll slams another nail in Virginia Democrats' coffin, as it shows Republicans leading each of the top three races on the ticket by at least 16 points -- including gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell up 18 points. The potential GOP sweep tomorrow would certainly be a blow to Dems, who have enjoyed a run of statewide success in recent years.

McDonnell now leads by 14.0 points in the RCP Average for Virginia. Both candidates will be in Richmond tomorrow night, on opposite sides of the city.

Two more surveys out in New Jersey, both with different results. The takeaway: this race is likely within the margin of error.

Monmouth University/Gannett
(722 LVs, 10/31-11/1, +/- 3.7%)
Corzine 43 (+1 vs. last poll, 10/28-30)
Christie 41 (-2)
Daggett 8 (unch)
Don't Know 7 (+2)

SurveyUSA
(582 LVs*, 10/30-11/1, +/- 4.1%)
Christie 45 (+2 vs. last poll, 10/26-28)
Corzine 42 (-1)
Daggett 10 (-1)
Undecided 3 (unch)

"If the undecided vote breaks largely for the Republican, this race could be a squeaker," says Monmouth's Patrick Murray. Their polling sample has a lower GOP response rate than SurveyUSA's, though the latter has a higher Dem response rate as well.

SurveyUSA notes that the poll was in the field as New Jerseyans were glued to the World Series, and families were out trick-or-treating. "As such, results of this survey should be interpreted cautiously: a narrow Corzine victory is not inconsistent with the data, but a narrow Christie win is more consistent with the data." A warning sign, however: Christie's lead among independent voters has climbed from 12 to 30 points in a month. Corzine does lead, however, among those who say they have already voted.

So much for pushing moderateness in this Northeastern swing district.

"Vote conservative," says the announcer in a new 60-second, RNC-sponsored radio ad in New York's 23rd District. Now that GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava has left the race, the national Republican campaign committees are pushing Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman.

Scozzafava was lambasted by the GOP's conservative base for her relatively liberal positions on such issues as abortion, taxes and spending. The new RNC ad mentions the word "conservative" five times in the ad, which is airing today and tomorrow in New York's North Country media markets.

"Let's tell the liberals, enough is enough," the announcer continues. "No more bailouts, taxes and budget busting spending. It's time to create jobs, with proven conservative ideas like lower taxes. Let your voice be heard, join the movement to bring real conservative change."

You can hear the ad here.

With GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava now out of the race and directing her supporters to back Democratic nominee Bill Owens, the special election race for New York's 23rd Congressional District has drastically changed. Siena Research Institute conducted a new poll yesterday to keep up with the late-breaking, game-changing events, and found Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman leading Owens by 5 points.

Hoffman 41 (+6 vs. last poll, Oct. 31)
Owens 36 (nc)
Scozzafava 6 (-14)

Click here to see all of the polls released in the NY-23 special election.

"With nearly one in five voters undecided the day before Election Day and voters still trying to comprehend the dramatic withdrawal of Scozzafava, and her subsequent endorsement of Owens, this is still a wide open race," said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. "The two candidates and campaigns are both in a sprint to try and convince these undecided voters to support them. Which ever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a victory tomorrow night
Und 18 (+9)

NEW YORK-23 (Latest Polls)

*Owens (D) and Scozzafava (R), together on the campaign trail.

*Politico has a tick-tock on Scozzafava's decision to back the Democrat.

*VP Biden will do what he can today as he campaigns for Owens.

*The race could be just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the conservative base bucking national GOP leadership.

*The weekend's developments will reverberate beyond the district's boundaries.

*Is it a good sign for the GOP if NY-23 is a bellwether for 2010?

NEW JERSEY (RCP Average: Christie +1.2)

*New Polls: Is Christie pulling ahead?

*The Times looks at Democratic efforts to score a victory tomorrow.

*Christie says it all comes down to turnout.

*Republicans are unhappy with a late robocall that aims to push Christie voters to Daggett.

*Joe "You Lie" Wilson was in the Garden State boosting his fellow Republican.

*The Post says Obama's butt is on the line for Corzine.

*Property taxes is the big issue, as always.

VIRGINIA (RCP Average: McDonnell +13.8)

*New York Times looks at the two governor's races and what they could mean for Obama and Democrats.

*McDonnell appears to be running away with the race.

*Deeds took to criticizing McDonnell for negative campaigning.

*Whoever is elected will likely need to slash the budget, as the state faces a $1 billion shortfall.

*Jim Moran being Jim Moran: He compares McDonnell to Taliban.

*Did GOP's road to victory start with "The Deal"?

*What it's really all about -- this is where the candidates stand on the issues.

*Sarah Palin is robo-calling Virginians, urging them to "vote for Sarah's principles."

The House will begin floor debate this week on the Democrats' comprehensive health care reform legislation, with a vote taking place perhaps as early as Thursday. The Senate continues to move forward today on the Unemployment Compensation Extension Act.

President Obama's day focuses on the economy. He'll meet with his Economic Recovery Advisory Board to talk about job creation, a session that will be streamed online in its entirety. Also today, the National Economic Council will hold a principals-level meeting, led by Larry Summers. Later, the president meets with Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt of Sweden.

Today Vice President Biden heads to upstate New York to campaign for Bill Owens in NY-23 race, which saw a big shakeup this weekend with the withdrawal of Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava.

Election Day is tomorrow for the governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as special elections in New York-23 and California-10, and the New York City mayoral race.

Continue reading "Strategy Memo: The Great Debate" »