CEDAR CREEK, Texas -- When the Republican Governors Association kicked off efforts to take back a majority of governorships in the 2009-10 cycle, it was South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) leading its efforts. When we interviewed him in February, he also was leading Republican opposition to the proposed stimulus package and the subject of 2012 speculation.

As the organization meets here this week, however, Sanford has kept a decidedly low profile, avoiding most of the open press sessions like this morning's health care press conference. The photo below was a rare glimpse by myself and several other reporters as we shuttled between events.

Back home in the Palmetto State, meanwhile, Sanford's woes continue. Today the speaker of the State House "has called on Gov. Mark Sanford to release a disputed investigative report into the governor's possible ethical or criminal violations stemming from his travel and use of campaign funds," The State reports. Yesterday, the state ethics panel ruled that the governor "will face an ethics panel next year to answer charges that he may have violated state law," per AP.

Here in Texas today, the RGA continues to crow about their 2009 victories and sound bullish about their 2010 prospects. But the DGA is responding by looking again at some of the familiar names they're putting on the ballot next year, saying it belies the idea of a promised GOP comeback. Check out the video here, which is being sent to the party organization's mailing list this afternoon:

More from the e-mail:

20 Republican governors. 500 conservative donors. A private resort in Texas. 3 days to finalize their comeback strategy... Sound like a bad dream? Unfortunately, it's all too real. And it's all happening right now in Austin, where the Republican Governors Association is holding their annual conference.

...

The "comeback" faces of the GOP include lackluster has-beens like John Kasich, former FOX News host and a leading figure at Lehman Brothers at the time of the bank's collapse, and Bill McCollum, a long-time politician/lobbyist whose crowning achievement in his 30 year congressional career is sponsoring the legislation that helped turn the housing market into a "big gambling casino." And the list only gets worse from there.

CEDAR CREEK, Texas -- Republican governors expressed strong opposition to versions of health care legislation being considered in the House and Senate, saying both would impose heavy burdens on state governments that are already struggling to balance their books.

In making a joint statement at a press conference here today, the 17 Republican governors on stage said that they spoke as well for many of their Democratic colleagues.

"We've not typically intervened on subjects like this, but we didn't know who else would do it," Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said. The non-partisan Nationals Governors Association, he added, "has been paralyzed by partisan reluctance to say what many Democratic governors have said to us privately and a few have said publicly."

Daniels also said many representatives of the business community on hand for this conference have told them that they're make their concerns public as well, for fear that their "business interests would be threatened."

"We just hope that in some way we can contribute to the national dialogue this morning," he said. "There's a far better way forward. Before it's too late let's find it."

Twenty-two of the members of the Democratic Governors Association did release a letter earlier this year in support of the federal policy. The White House has also highlighted the support of former Republican officials.

The major concern that governors outlined was changes to Medicaid that would result in what Gov. Haley Barbour called a $25 billion tax on the states.

"We're concerned about the federal government overreaching and trampling the prerogative of states across this great country," Gov. Tim Pawlenty said. "At a time when state budgets that are tighter than ever, that's not only going to be burdensome. But also from a policy direction, it heads our country in the wrong direction."

Continue reading "GOP Govs Blast Health Care Bills, Claim Dems Also Wary" »

AUSTIN, Texas -- As noted yesterday, the RGA kicked off here Wednesday in the shadow of a blockbuster media tour by one of its former members -- former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. As she promotes her own tome and potentially sets up her future political move, the question was posed to victorious candidates in New Jersey and Virginia why the former vice presidential nominee was not on their list of surrogates this fall.

New Jersey Gov.-elect Chris Christie first answered by saying he intentionally avoided bringing any national party leaders into the state in an effort to keep the focus on his own solutions specific to the state. But after it was pointed out that figures like Jeb Bush, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney made stops in the Garden State, Christie offered a new explanation.

"The people I asked to come into campaign for me were either someone like Mayor Giuliani, who I have known for the better part of a decade, or two governors who had faced the same kind of things and could talk about those issues in an intelligent way to show how Republican ideas had fixed those fiscal problems in those states," he said.

Virginia's Bob McDonnell said that he had initially reached out to Palin at an early stage in his run for governor seeking her involvement. But she "was in such incredible demand" and busy with work in Alaska that an early visit was not possible. By the time she resigned her post, McDonnell then claimed, "we had pretty much already arranged all of the folks that we had for the home stretch for fundraisers, including several current and former governors."

Continue reading "RGA Notebook: The Palin Chronicles" »

CEDAR CREEK, Texas -- Hosting more than 20 of his colleagues outside the state capital tonight, Gov. Rick Perry said that Republican governors are the ones carrying the torch for the GOP in opposing an overreaching Democratic administration in Washington, as the RGA made a strong case for the philosophical leadership of the party.

Just as Senate Democrats were unveiling legislation to reform the nation's health care system, Texas' governor called for a simpler approach to governance that emphasized tax cuts, lower spending and less obtrusive regulation.

"By and large, it's been those Republican governors who have had the courage and the will and the discipline to push those types of changes through," Perry said at the opening public session of the Republican Governors Association Conference here tonight. "We have a federal government today that is wanting to ... create one-sized fits all policy for all of the states. I happen to think it's time for a substantial number of governors to have the courage to stand up and push back on Washington, DC."

It was the strongest message of the featured speakers tonight, but one that could define the gathering as Republican state leaders celebrate double wins in New Jersey and Virginia. Perry, as well as Govs. Tim Pawlenty, Bobby Jindal and Mitch Daniels, emphasized the idea of states driving policy and competing with one another, rather than the federal government implementing one universal policy on all 50.

"I get pretty passionate about the Tenth Amendment," Perry told his fellow governors and hundreds of other attendees at a resort outside Austin. "We don't need to back away from in the least bit."

Continue reading "Perry: Time For Governors To Push Back" »

I'll be here in Austin covering the RGA Annual Conference, previewed here this morning.

Keep checking back for updates on what the Republican Governors are saying about their 2009 victories and 2010 prospects. You can also get instant updates on what's going on at some of the sessions by following me on Twitter.

Public Policy Polling (D) revisits the Missouri Senate race today, an in the expected matchup of Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) and Rep. Roy Blunt (R), the result is just where it was at the start of the year.

General Election Matchup
Carnahan 43 (-2 vs. last poll, 1/10-11)
Blunt 42 (-2)
Und 15 (+4)

In another matchup, Carnahan leads state Sen. Chuck Purgason 42-35. Blunt leads Purgason in a GOP primary matchup, 53-16. You can find more polling on the race here.

Carnahan is the daughter of Missouri's late Gov. Mel Carnahan and former Sen. Jean Carnahan, who took her husband's seat when he was posthumously elected in 2000. She boasts the strongest name recognition and favorable score of the group.

Favorable Ratings
Carnahan 40 / 36
Blunt 30 / 38
Purgason 7 / 14

President Obama has just a 43 percent approval rating in the Show Me State; 52 percent disapprove of his job performance. The proposed health care reform bill is very unpopular, supported by just 34 percent of Missourians and opposed by 55 percent.

"If Robin Carnahan had faced off against Roy Blunt in any election year between 1996 and 2008 she would likely have won given her superior popularity," PPP's Dean Debnam says in a polling memo. "But 2010 has the potential to be an extremely good year for Republicans, and that's made this race highly competitive."

As Republican governors gather outside Austin today for their annual conference, the atmosphere will be a far cry from their gathering a year ago. Then, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin stole the spotlight in what was her first major public appearance since the GOP ticket lost the presidential election. This year, Palin again is center of attention as she kicks off a book tour in Michigan. While 300 media credentials were issued last year, the RGA expects only a few dozen reporters this year.

But the mood is different for another, more important reason for the Republican leaders gathering here -- they're celebrating big wins in New Jersey and Virginia weeks ago, and expecting that momentum will continue in 2010 when the battlefield grows considerably larger.

"This year there's a lot more smiles," RGA spokesman Mike Schrimpf said. "The focus among the governors last year was how are we going to win back a majority of governorships. This year, that remains the focus. But it's always a lot more joyful when you're actually gaining members this year."

Twenty of 24 Republican governors are attending, in addition to Governors-elect Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell, and several candidates seeking office in 2010. The RGA plans to contrast what's going on in these Republican-lead states with the goings on in Washington, DC, Texas Gov. Rick Perry told reporters Tuesday evening.

"Unlike our Republican friends in DC, governors are able to implement effective, conservative policies that are gonna regain the trust in our party's ability to govern," he said. "We knew that there are Republicans that are concerned all across the country. What they're seeing out of the governors, and particularly what they're seeing out of RGA, is an organization that is being very effective and very efficient with their dollars."

Gov. Haley Barbour, the RGA chairman, said the organization expects to be able to do more to help its incumbents and challengers next year than in any previous cycle. The organization spent $13 million in New Jersey and Virginia, and has $25 million on hand as the next cycle begins, which he credited to an aggressive small donor effort that has allowed the group to be "less reliant on corporate money."

In that vein, Palin is still very much a part of the the RGA's 2010 plans. The group purchased a large supply of "Going Rogue" at a considerable discount, and will reward new donors with a copy signed by Palin herself.

"I suspect we're going to raise a whole lot of money with this," Barbour said. "She's mighty good to do this -- she was a great colleague."

The event is a showcase for all the governors, but particularly those who are building national profiles with an eye toward 2012. In addition to Barbour and Perry, Govs. Tim Pawlenty, Bobby Jindal and Mitch Daniels will be featured as the group plans to discuss specifically the views of RGA members on the latest developments in Washington.

Former Gov. Sarah Palin said that Republicans should not hesitate "duking it out" with each other in primaries, and downplayed the need for a third party movement to espouse conservative principles.

Speaking on Rush Limbaugh's radio show today about the results of the New York 23 election, Palin called Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman's apparent defeat evidence that, "If you're not the anointed one within the machine, sometimes you have a much tougher road to hoe." Limbaugh then asked about whether the former GOP VP nominee thought a third party would be viable.

"Ideally, sure, a third party or an independent party would be able to soar and thrive and put candidates forth and have them elected. But I don't think America is ready for that," she said. Palin said she didn't consider herself an "obsessive partisan," and also referred to her husband as being someone who was a registered independent but has "got more common sense conservatism than a whole lot of Republicans that I know."

"But to answer your question, I don't think the third party movement will be what's necessary to usher in some common sense conservative ideals," she repeated.

Palin added that independents would continue to move toward the Republican Party, as they did this November in New Jersey and Virginia, if Republicans focus on "just implementing common-sense, conservative solutions." And she said that she appreciates that her party hasn't shied from having "contested, aggressive, competitive primaries."

"We're not like this herd mentality, like a bunch of sheep, with the fighting instincts of sheep ... like some of the Democrat Party, where heaven forbid you take a stand and you oppose somebody within your own party because it's the right thing to do," she said. "Some in the other side, they're observing what goes on in the GOP and say, 'That's infighting and they can't get along and there's no consensus there.' No! This is healthy debate. Good competition that makes candidates work harder. It makes for a better product, if you will, at the end of the day. I appreciate that about our party."

Anyone who watched the 2008 presidential primaries might disagree that Democrats have a "herd mentality." But her comments nonetheless represent her first extended views on domestic and international politics beyond occasional Facebook notes, and come as she gets ready to kick off a multi-state book tour.

Palin was particularly eager to weigh in on national security, criticizing President Obama, though not by name, for "dithering and hesitation" on Afghanistan.

"We're gonna claim what Ronald Reagan claimed. Our motto's gonna be, we win, you lose," she siad. "The way that we do that is allow McChrystal to have the reinforcements that he's asking for in Afghanistan that sends the message to the terrorists over there that, now we're going to end this thing with our victory."

After the jump, Palin's views on health care, Iran and other issues.

Continue reading "Palin Calls GOP Battles Healthy; Hits "Dithering" Obama" »

A new Susquehanna Polling & Research survey gives Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (D) a 5-point lead over Rep. Mike Castle (R) in a hypothetical Senate matchup, news that has to relieve Democrats worried about a dubious trifecta in 2010.

General Election Matchup
Biden (D) 45 (+11 vs. last poll, 4/09)
Castle (R) 40 (-15)
Und 8 (unch)

Castle leads by 2.3 points in the RCP Average of Delaware Senate polling.

In this poll, Castle performs slightly better among Republicans than Biden does among Democrats, and holds a 5-point lead among independents. The problem for the state's lone Congressman and former governor is that there are 106,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the First State.

Susquehanna also attributes Castle's slippage to "negative publicity he received in the state after casting a 'no' vote for President Obama's health care bill in the U.S. Congress." That vote occurred just over 48 hours before the poll went into the field.

This survey of 850 registered voters was conducted November 10-15, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.36 percent.

Even after a recent ad buy aimed at improving his numbers, New York Gov. David Paterson (D) looks like a sure loser in either the primary or general election next year, a new Siena poll (11/8-12, 800 RVs, MoE +/- 3.5%) finds.

The TV ads may have bought the governor a slight improvement in his fav/unfav rating, but that's about it. His job approval rating is still an abysmal 21 percent, compared to 79 percent who disapprove. Only 17 percent say they'd vote to elect him in 2010, while 69 percent prefer someone else. Here are how the primary and general election matchups pan out:

Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchup
Cuomo 75 (+5 vs last poll, 10/14-18)
Paterson 16 (-4)

Gubernatorial General Election Matchups
Giuliani 56 (unch)
Paterson 33 (unch)

Lazio 42 (+5)
Paterson 39 (unch)

Cuomo 53 (+3)
Giuliani 41 (-2)

Cuomo 67 (+1)
Lazio 22 (+1)

"While it's true that the Governor's new commercials had only been airing for less than a week while Siena was polling, it seems clear that he's going to have to spend a lot of campaign funds very early to even have a chance of improving the measurements by which voters judge David Paterson," Siena's Steven Greenberg said.

Fifty-two percent of voters prefer that Andrew Cuomo run for governor instead of another term as attorney general. Just as many say he has time to wait, while 33 percent want him to declare now.

Favorable Ratings
Paterson 27 / 61
Lazio 29 / 22
Cuomo 67 / 20
Giuliani 62 / 34

After the jump, a look at Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's improving re-election prospects.

Continue reading "NY Poll: Paterson Still Struggling" »

A Des Moines Register poll shows that Gov. Chet Culver (D) is at risk of being a one-term governor in a state that has re-elected every governor -- often multiple times -- since four-year terms were approved in 1972. He's particularly vulnerable against one of his predecessors -- four-term Gov. Terry Branstad (R), who is likely running in 2010.

General Election Matchups
Branstad 57 -- Culver 33 -- Und 8
Vander Plaats 45 -- Culver 37 -- Und 15
Culver 42 -- Rants 35 -- Und 18
Culver 42 -- Fong 34 -- Und 20

In the matchup against Branstad, the Register poll finds that one of five Democrats chose the Republican, as do 58 percent of independent voters. Culver's job approval rating is just 40 percent in the latest poll, far lower than former Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack ever scored, and a point Branstad hit only briefly in his tenure.

Favorable Ratings
Culver 48 / 46
Branstad 60 / 22
Vander Plaats 24 / 12
Rants 14 / 11
Fong 10 / 6

In the 2010 Senate race, incumbent Charles Grassley (R) is much safer, leading potential Democratic opponent Roxanne Conlin 57-30. He has a 57 percent approval rating, though he scores lowest when asked about his role in the health care debate. Thirty-nine percent give him good marks for that issue, while 49 percent grade him as fair or poor.

The Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register was conducted by Selzer & Co. from November 8-11, with an overall sample of 800 Iowans and margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent. The gubernatorial and Senate matchups were taken from a sample of 539 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent.

Public Policy Polling (D) surveyed voters in Arkansas' Second Congressional District, carried narrowly by Pres. Bush in 2000 and 2004 but that went for Sen. John McCain by a 10-point margin in 2008. Rep. Vic Snyder (D), who recently voted for the health care reform bill in the House, could face a tough race there in 2010.

General Election Matchups
Snyder (D) 44
Griffin (R) 43
Und 13

Snyder (D) 45
Meeks (R) 42
Und 13

Snyder (D) 44
Wallace (R) 42
Und 13

Snyder has an upside-down 42 percent job approval rating, with 46 percent disapproving. President Obama fares worse, with 41 percent approving and 52 percent disapproving.

Only 32 percent of district respondents support the health care bill, while 55 percent oppose. Still, 45 percent say Snyder's ideology is "about right" for the district, while 42 percent say he's too liberal. But 50 percent say the Democratic Congress is too liberal, while 39 percent say the GOP conference is too conservative.

"Vic Snyder's situation is pretty emblematic of the perils Democrats face going into 2010," said PPP's Dean Debnam in a release. "His district hasn't been competitive in a long time but his health care vote and Obama's unpopularity with his constituents has put him in a vulnerable position."

The survey of 400 voters was conducted November 11-13 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) had taken a small lead after announcing her campaign for governor. But the man who still holds that job has retaken a commanding lead in the primary race, a new Rasmussen poll finds.

Primary Election Matchup
Perry 46 (+8 vs. last poll, 9/16)
Hutchison 35 (-5)
Medina 4 (+1)
Not Sure 14 (-5)

Looking deeper, Rasmussen finds that Gov. Rick Perry's (R) advantage is among the more conservative voters in the primary electorate. He leads 52-30 percent among those who identify themselves as conservatives, while Hutchison leads among moderates and liberals.

Perry has ratcheted up his anti-Washington rhetoric of late, generating a banner headline on Drudge for saying this week that the Obama administration was "hell-bent" on socialism. That's proving to be a winning message in the race considering both candidates are very popular in their own right. Among these primary voters, Perry's job approval rating is 73 percent, and both have nearly identical fav/unfav ratings -- 75/24 for Perry, 75/23 for Hutchison.

The survey also asked if Hutchison should resign her Senate post in making a gov run, something she was expected to do but not yet indicated when. Sixty percent of primary voters said she should, while 26 percent said no.

The survey of 798 likely GOP primary voters was conducted November 11 and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

While Democrats face competitive Senate races in a number of states carried last year by President Obama, three in particular could send shock waves through a party that stormed back to control Washington the last two cycles: President Obama's former Illinois seat, Vice President Biden's Delaware seat and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's seat in Nevada.

Based on recent polling, a shifting national mood and excellent candidate recruitment by the GOP, Republicans could be in position a year from now to win seats once held by three of the four most powerful elected officials in Washington. Should that happen, it wouldn't be at all surprising if states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Connecticut and Florida -- all of which Obama won last year -- elected Republicans as well.

In Illinois, the National Republican Senatorial Committee succeeded in recruiting Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) to give up his congressional district to run statewide. Meanwhile, Democrats -- including the White House -- were unable to convince state Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) to run, as she eventually opted for re-election. Running instead are Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman and Chicago Urban League president Cheryle Jackson, who previously served as press secretary for disgraced governor Rod Blagojevich. Obama's appointed successor, Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.), opted not to run for reelection.

Limited polling in the state has shown Giannoulias ahead of his primary opponents and statistically tied with Kirk, who is expected to win the GOP primary. Whoever wins the Democratic primary will likely receive substantial support from the White House and Democratic National Committee, as the prospect of losing the president's former Senate seat two years after he was elected president would be embarrassing.

Republicans scored a coup in Delaware with the recruitment of Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.), who has won 11 statewide races including two for governor (in 1984 and 1988) and the past nine for the state's lone House seat. Biden won the seat for the seventh time in November 2008 -- when he was also elected vice president -- and Sen. Ted Kaufman (D-Del.), Biden's longtime chief of staff, was appointed to replace him. It was widely rumored that Kaufman, who will not run next year, would serve as a placeholder for Biden's son, state Attorney General Beau Biden, until the 2010 special election.

Castle has led Biden in the four polls released this year. However, the most recent one -- a DailyKos/Research 2000 survey out last month -- found Castle up by just a single point.

The third race of what could be a crushing trifecta for Democrats is in Nevada, where recent polling shows Majority Leader Harry Reid to be among the most vulnerable incumbent senators, despite the amount of power he wields in the Senate. Both of his potential Republican opponents -- former state party chair Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian, son of a famed UNLV basketball coach -- lead Reid by more than 5 points in general election matchups, and have led him in every poll that has been released.

Whoever takes on Reid will need to raise serious money in order to compete statewide, as Reid has a national network of donors and $8.7 million in the bank.

Still, the GOP is targeting Reid in hopes he will become the second Democratic leader in the Senate in six years to be defeated, following then-minority leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota, who was knocked out of office in 2004 by Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.).

Losing these three seats would be particularly embarrassing to President Obama and his party just two years after capturing the White House and expanding majorities in Congress. Beyond the humiliating symbolism, however, the defeats would deliver a serious blow to the party's advantage in the Senate -- and more than likely be just a few of the Democratic losses on Election Day 2010.