RealClearPolitics Electoral Count
Tuesday, November 2: Bush 227 - Kerry 203
(270 Electoral Votes Needed to Win)
RCP Electoral Map | Battleground State Polls, Averages | Email This Page to a Friend
Updated Electoral Count Analysis


11/2: HI - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 203)
10/31: MI - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 227 - Kerry 207)
10/31: NM - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 190)
10/31: MI - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 232 - Kerry 190)
10/28: NM - Toss Up >> Leaning Bush (Bush 232 - Kerry 207)
10/28: NC - Leaning Bush >> Solid Bush (Bush 227 - Kerry 207)
10/28: IA - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 207)
10/28: PA - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 234 - Kerry 207)
10/26: MI - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 234 - Kerry 228)
10/23: HI - Solid Kerry >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 234 - Kerry 211)
10/22: PA - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 234 - Kerry 211)
10/22: ME/1 - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 234 - Kerry 190)
10/22: IA - Toss Up >> Leaning Bush (Bush 234 - Kerry 189)
10/21: MI - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 189)
10/20: NH - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 206)
10/19: MN - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 210)
10/18: FL - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 220)
Earlier Switches

Solid Bush
(191)
Leaning Bush
(36)
Toss Up
(108)
Leaning Kerry
(54)
Solid Kerry
(149)
AL (9)
AR (6)
FL (27)
ME (4)
CA (55)
AK (3)
CO (9)
HI (4)
MI (17)
CT (7)
AZ (10)
MO (11)
IA (7)
NJ (15)
DE (3)
GA (15)
NV (5)
MN (10)
OR (7)
IL (21)
ID (4)
WV (5)
NH (4)
WA (11)
MD (10)
IN (11)
 
NM (5)
MA (12)
KS (6)
 
OH (20)
NY (31)
KY (8)
 
PA (21)
RI (4)
LA (9)
 
WI (10)
VT (3)
MS (6)
 
DC (3)
MT (3)
 
NC (15)
NE (5)
ND (3)
OK (7)
SC (8)
SD (3)
TN (11)
TX (34)
UT (5)
VA (13)
       
WY (3)
Bush Total = 227
Toss Up = 108
Kerry Total = 203
 

11/2: In the last week there has been a small move toward Senator Kerry in the RCP National Average, however that has been offset by small movement towards President Bush in the critical battleground states. Based on the final RCP State Averages, President Bush is projected to win 296 Electoral Votes to 242 for Senator Kerry.

(There have been no public polls released in Hawaii in over two weeks, and even though President Bush leads in the two polls taken in mid-October, we feel Senator Kerry retains an edge in Hawaii due to the overwhelmingly Democratic leanings of the state. We have allocated Hawaii's four Electoral Votes to Kerry in our projection, though we have moved the state to a tossup based on private polling suggesting the state is indeed close.) RCP 7:27 am


10/25: President Bush continues to maintain a structural edge in the Electoral College that has worked to his advantage this entire campaign. However, the states that are producing that advantage have shifted since the summer.

In our initial electoral analysis we suggested that the election would boil down to Florida and Ohio, with Kerry having to win one of those two states and President Bush simply needing to carry them both to gain reelection. At the time we suggested that one of the President 's advantages was the possibility of offsetting a loss in Ohio or Florida by poaching some of the Gore states (IA, WI, MN NM, and OR), giving the President an alternate option of collecting an EC majority that Senator Kerry really never had.

As of today this alternate option, if necessary, for President Bush is starting to look more and more like a very real possibility. Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico are fully in play: eight days before the election Bush holds leads in the RCP State Averages in all four of these states. This is seriously complicating Kerry's strategy in getting to 270 Electoral Votes. Conventional wisdom for months, including RCP's, had been that whoever won two of the "big three" Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida would almost certainly become President.

While it may still be likely that whoever carries two out of those three will win the election, it is not the cut and dry proposition it was earlier. President Bush can offset a loss in Ohio (and New Hampshire) by carrying Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Mexico or Minnesota. He can offset a loss in Florida (and New Hampshire), by winning three of those four states. Winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine's 1 Electoral Vote and holding New Hampshire would also allow President Bush to gain reelection while losing Florida.

Turning the conventional wisdom completely on its head President Bush could even lose all three of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida and still win, as long as he was able to flip Michigan. Granted, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Kerry would win Pennsylvania and Ohio yet lose Michigan, but with a poll in Michigan showing the President ahead by five and Mason-Dixon calling it a one point race, coupled with a gay marriage initiative and Ralph Nader on the ballot (unlike PA and OH), it's not totally impossible. In this scenario Bush victories in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could offset the loss of Florida's 27 Electoral Votes and Michigan would offset a loss in Ohio, leaving Kerry with a measly three electoral vote pick up.

While the Michigan option is a little far-fetched the other two are not. The problem for Senator Kerry is he has no backup plan to not winning in either Florida or Ohio. The problem for President Bush is that Kerry is still very much alive in both those states. All of Bush's backup Electoral scenarios will be irrelevant if he loses FL and OH and Kerry hangs on to PA and MI.

As the race sits today, the President holds roughly a three point lead in the national race. At the state level, using the RCP state averages to allocate the Electoral College, President Bush would win 306 - 232. However, the final movement in the national polls will have an exaggerated effect on that electoral tally. If Bush starts to pull away this week and can close strong building back toward his 5-7 point lead of September, that Electoral number could easily expand to 352 - 186. A small tightening towards Kerry in the final days from where we are today would indicate a dead heat race, where many of those electoral scenarios mentioned above could very well come into play. A strong break towards Kerry and most of these states would flip his direction leading to something like a 311 - 227 Kerry win.

Keep an eye on the RCP National Average. Eight days out it shows Bush ahead by roughly three points. Where that number is a week from today will be the best tell on how this race will turnout.
October 8th Analysis | Summer Analysis


Battleground State Polls - RCP Average      
Poll | Date
Bush
Kerry
Nader
Spread
48.2
47.6
1.0
Bush +0.6
48.8
46.7
Off Ballot
Bush +2.1
47.3
48.2
Off Ballot
Kerry +0.9
47.4
47.1
1.0
Bush +0.3
45.2
48.7
1.5
Kerry +3.5
Minnesota | 10/24 - 11/1
45.3
48.5
5.0
Kerry +3.2
47.7
46.8
1.7
Bush +0.9
49.5
45.3
Off Ballot
Bush +4.2
47.5
48.5
1.3
Kerry +1.0
51.0
44.7
-
Bush +6.3
51.5
43.0
-
Bush +8.5
47.8
46.4
1.3
Bush +1.4
Oregon | 10/25 - 10/29
45.0
49.8
-
Kerry +4.8
50.0
44.8
1.0
Bush +5.2
41.5
51.0
1.0
Kerry +9.5
51.0
44.5
-
Bush +6.5
44.7
43.8
-
Bush +0.9

Date
RCP Electoral Count
RCP 3-Way Poll
November 2
November 1
October 31
October 30
October 29
October 28
October 27
October 26
October 25
October 24
October 23
October 22
October 21
October 20
October 19
October 18
October 17
October 16
October 15
October 14
October 13
October 12
October 11
October 10
October 9
October 8
October 7
October 6
October 5
October 4
October 3
October 2
October 1
September 30
September 29
September 28
September 27
September 26
September 25
September 24
September 23
September 22
September 21

10/17: PA - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 254 - Kerry 220)
10/17: NH - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 254 - Kerry 241)
10/17: WI - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 254 - Kerry 237)
10/13: MN - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 - Kerry 237)
10/12: OR - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 - Kerry 227)
10/6: ME/CD2 - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 264 - Kerry 220)
10/6: PA - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 264 - Kerry 221)
10/6: OH - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 264 - Kerry 200)
10/5: IA - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 284 - Kerry 200)
9/30: PA - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 291 - Kerry 200)
9/26: PA - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 291 - Kerry 221)
9/23: IA - Toss Up >> Leaning Bush (Bush 291 - Kerry 200)


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