Polling on 2002 Key Senate Races


South Dakota                                                       Toss Up
Poll
Date
Thune (R)
Johnson (D)
Spread
11/3-11/4
52%
47%
GOP +5
10/31-11/2
48%
45%
GOP +3
10/30-11/2
47%
52%
Dem +5
10/25-10/27
45%
47%
Dem +2
10/21-10/25
42%
45%
Dem +3
Last 3 Polls
Average
48.3%
46.3%
GOP +2.0

It is absolutely ridiculous to think that in a race which has been 50-50 for months, there has been a ten-point swing to Thune in the last few days. Johnson wasn't ahead by five points and we doubt Thune is ahead by five points. Our RCP final poll average has Thune up two points, and we have thought Thune would pull this race out all along due to the popularity of President Bush and the strong GOP leanings of the state. Thune 50% - Johnson 50%, Thune wins.

Minnesota                                                            Toss Up
Poll
Date
Coleman (R)
Mondale (D)
Spread
11/3-11/4
45%
51%
Dem +6
10/30-11/2
45%
50%
Dem +5
10/30-11/1
47%
41%
GOP +6
10/30-11/1
41%
46%
Dem +5
Average
44.3%
46.0%
Dem +1.7

The "Wellstone Rally" last Tuesday stole the momentum and sympathy vote away from Mondale and energized Republicans. Both sides in this race are fired up, but Coleman has the momentum and we think he came across very favorably, compared to Mondale, in their election eve debate yesterday. Two polls favor Mondale, one favors Coleman. We think Coleman wins. Coleman 51% - Mondale 47%.

Missouri                                                                Toss Up
Poll
Date
Talent (R)
Carnahan (D)
Spread
11/3-11/4
53%
45%
GOP +8
10/31-11/2
48%
44%
GOP +4
10/31-11/2
48%
49%
Dem +1
10/30-11/1
46%
46%
TIE
10/28-10/30
50%
46%
GOP +4
10/23-10/30
46%
41%
GOP +5
10/15-10/17
47%
50%
Dem +3
10/9-10/11
47%
41%
GOP +6
Last 4 Ind Polls
Average
49.3%
44.0%
GOP + 5.3

Like South Dakota, Zogby shows a massive late swing towards Talent (9 points). We suspect Talent has been ahead by 3-4 points for weeks now, and that the 3-4 point margin will probably be close to what the final results look like. African-American turnout is going to be critical to any chance Carnahan has of holding on to this seat. The chicanery of 2000 in St. Louis is not likely to be replicated to the same extent and that helps Talent. Talent 51% - Carnahan 48%.

Colorado                                                              Toss Up
Tracking Poll
Date
Allard (R)
Strickland (D)
Spread
11/2-11/4
46%
51%
Dem +5
10/31-11/2
47%
45%
GOP +2
10/31-11/2
44%
53%
Dem +9
10/29-11/1
41%
42%
Dem +1
10/28-30
38%
42%
Dem +4
SurveyUSA
10/21-10/32
50%
46%
GOP +4
Last 2 Polls
Average
45.5%
48.0%
Dem +1.5
*Tracking poll

This race is so difficult to call. There is no question that the Allard poll numbers for an incumbent are terrible, and usually these type of numbers correspond with a loss. Zogby's supposed nine point lead for Strickland two days ago was ridiculous. His last poll gives Strickland a five point lead, we think the last Gallup poll showing Allard with a two point lead is closer to the truth. Bottom line, in the end, we give the edge to Allard because this is a Republican leaning state and the Republicans are going to win the Governor's race in a landslide. Allard 49% - Strickland 48%.

New Hampshire (Open)                                      Toss Up
Poll
Date
Sununu (R)
Shaheen (D)
Spread
11/2-11/3
48%
44%
GOP +4
10/30-11/2
47%
46%
GOP +1
10/29-10/31
46%
47%
Dem +1
10/28-10/30
48%
46%
GOP +2
10/27-10/30
40%
45%
Dem +5
10/23-10/28
42%
46%
Dem +4
Last 3 Polls
Average
47.0%
45.7%
GOP +1.3

There seems to have been a late surge for Sununu as both the ARG and UNH polls show him picking up support. Bob Smith has nominally called on the write-in folks to cease and desist and that may be contributing to the Sununu increase. We still few this race as terribly close and yesterday we had Shaheen with the slight edge. If Sununu pulls this race out it will be because the GOP candidates are cruising in the two congressional districts and in the governor's race. We still give Shaheen the tiny edge. Shaheen 49% - Sununu 49%, Shaheen wins.

Arkansas                                         Toss Up/Leans Dem
Poll
Date
Hutchinson (R)
Pryor (D)
Spread
Zogby
11/2-11/4
43%
56%
Dem +13
10/31-11/2
43%
51%
Dem +8
Zogby
10/31-11/2
44%
55%
Dem +11
10/16-10/19
43%
48%
Dem +5
10/9-10/11
45%
45%
TIE
2 Oct Polls
Average
43.0%
53.5%
Dem +10.5

Bad news for Senator Hutchinson. The Democrats have three things working for them in this race: 1) Pryor is the son of famous and popular former Senator and Governor, 2) Pryor is running as a conservative Democrat, running ads in camouflage gear carrying a rifle, 3) Hutchinson ditched his wife of 20+ years and married a staffer shortly after coming to Washington in 1996. Bottom line Pryor wins. Pryor 53% - Hutchinson 47%.

UPDATE: Republicans are running attack ads against Pryor on this illegal immigrant story, we think it is probably a little too late, not too mention a little sleazy, it might even boomerang on Hutchinson rather than help.

New Jersey                                     Toss Up/Leans Dem
Poll
Date
Forrester (R)
Lautenberg (D)
Spread
Zogby
11/2-11/4
42%
55%
Dem +13
10/28-11/3
39%
50%
Dem +11
Zogby
10/31-11/2
38%
54%
Dem +16
10/30-11/1
41%
47%
Dem +6
10/28-10/31
37%
47%
Dem +10
10/27-10/29
41%
51%
Dem +10
Last 3 Polls
Average
40.7%
50.7%
Dem +10.0

Latest Zogby has Lautenberg's lead at 13 points. According to Zogby, Lautenberg has opened up a 51%-28% lead among Independents, a net gain of 25 points since mid-October. We think the Mason-Dixon and Quinnipiac polls more accurately reflect where this race is today. Lautenberg is still favored to win here, but a very long-shot GOP upset is not totally out of the question given the sleazy Torricelli switcheroo. Lautenberg 51% - Forrester 47%.

Texas (Open)                                                      Toss Up
Poll
Date
Cornyn (R)
Kirk (D)
Spread
Zogby
11/3-11/4
50%
46%
GOP +4
Zogby
10/30-11/2
49%
48%
GOP +1
10/29-11/1
50%
41%
GOP +9
10/29-11/1
53%
45%
GOP +8
10/7-10/29
44%
35%
GOP +9
10/21-10/27
43%
40%
GOP +3
10/21-10/23
52%
45%
GOP +7
Last 3 Polls
Average
51.0%
44.0
GOP +7.0

This is Texas and George W. Bush is President. So in the end we just don't see how Cornyn is going to lose. But, Kirk is a very attractive candidate and there no good way to quantify just how strong the minority vote will be in this race. The fact that Zogby showed Cornyn picking up three points in the last few days probably has Republicans feeling better. And maybe this race won't be close after all, but this could be a long-shot upset for the Democrats. Cornyn 51% - Kirk 47%.

Georgia                                                                 Toss Up
Poll
Date
Chambliss (R)
Cleland (D)
Spread
11/3-11/4
48%
50%
Dem +2
10/30-11/2
49%
49%
TIE
10/25-10/29
45%
48%
Dem +3
10/16-10/17
41%
47%
Dem +6
Last 2 Polls
Average
46.5%
49.0%
Dem +2.5

Chambliss is coming on like a freight train and his performance in the last debate Sunday night is leading to more speculation that this could be a big upset for the Republicans. We think Chambliss does indeed have the momentum, and a potential wild card here that may make a huge difference, the Cynthia McKinney dust-up earlier in the primary may keep crucial black voters from voting, voters Cleland is going to have to have if he hopes to win. Chambliss 49% - Cleland 49%, Chambliss wins in a huge upset.

North Carolina (Open)                                       Toss Up
Poll
Date
Dole (R)
Bowles (D)
Spread
Zogby
11/2-11/4
53%
43%
GOP +10
Zogby
10/30-11/2
52%
46%
GOP +6
10/28-10/31
47%
40%
GOP +7
10/28-10/30
50%
46%
GOP +4
10/28-10/29
48%
42%
GOP +6
Last 4 Polls
Average
49.5%
42.8%
GOP +6.8

We don't buy Zogby's latest poll here showing Dole with a ten point lead. Dole is a terrible candidate and if this race had been two weeks later she would have lost. We suspect she has built enough of a lead and the state still leans enough towards the GOP to get her over the finish line, but this has a very REAL possibility to be a Democratic upset. Dole 50% - Bowles 48%.

Louisiana                                        Toss Up/Leans Dem
Post Nov 5 Polls
Date
Terrell (R)
Landrieu (D)
Spread
WRS/SBA (R)
11/10-11/12
48%
40%
GOP +8%
11/6-11/9
36.4%
51.4%
Dem +15%
         
Pre-Nov 5 Polls
Nov 5
Results
Perkins (R)
Terrell (R)
Cooksey (R)
Landrieu (D)
   
10%
27%
14%
46%
Poll
Date
Perkins (R)
Terrell (R)
Cooksey (R)
Landrieu (D)
10/17-19
6%
20%
15%
44%
10/11-17
4%
16%
9%
45%
Average
5.0%
18.0%
12.0%
44.5%

PRE-NOV 5 ELECTION COMMENTS:Landrieu is struggling to reach the 50% mark she needs to avoid a December runoff. Depending on the outcome of the other Senate races, if Landrieu fails to eclipse 50% Louisiana could become ground zero for a crazy, bitter, month-long nationalized battle for control of the Senate. We think a runoff is almost guaranteed.

The runoff shouldn't of been too much of a surprise, as Senator Frist's strategy to run three Republicans worked to perfection by denying Landrieu the 50% she needed. But the Frist strategy did have a cost as the Republicans are far from united and there is a relatively high level of bitterness with the interference from Washington. Rep Cooksey is very angry with Terrell and is doing very little to be helpful. And the Republican Governor has also not endorsed Terrell as of today. However several black lawmakers are not happy with Landrieu and have publicly said they will not work to get blacks to the polls for Landrieu on Dec 7. The first poll shows Landrieu with a 51% - 36% lead, which is not all that surprising, look for the next series of polls to close that gap, or at least they better if Terrell is going have a chance to give the GOP one more Senate pick up.

Iowa                                                                    Safe Dem
Poll
Date
Ganske (R)
Harkin (D)
Spread
10/29-11/1
41%
50%
Dem +9
10/27-10/29
38%
60%
Dem +22
10/20-10/22
40%
57%
Dem +17
10/13-10/16
41%
50%
Dem +9
10/6-10/8
44%
53%
Dem +9
Last 2 Polls
Average
39.5%
55.0%
Dem + 15.5

This race is over. But the final election results will be way closer than these latest polls. Harkin 54% - Ganske 46%.

South Carolina (Open)                                     Safe GOP
Poll
Date
Graham (R)
Sanders (D)
Spread
11/1-11/3
49%
48%
GOP +1
10/28-10/29
53%
36%
GOP +17
10/25-10/27
49%
48%
GOP +1
10/18-10/20
53%
44%
GOP +9
10/11-10/13
51%
34%
GOP +17
Zogby
10/9-10/11
47%
35%
GOP +12
Last 2 Polls
Average
51.0%
42.0%
GOP +9.0

We don't buy the SurveyUSA poll in this state. Conservative state, solid GOP candidate, bottom line - Graham isn't going to lose. We think it makes since to disregard the 49-48 poll by SurveryUSA, Graham is probably up anywhere from 7-13 points in this race, he will win.

Tennessee (Open)                                           Safe GOP
Poll
Date
Alexander (R)
Clement (D)
Spread
10/26-10/28
52%
41%
GOP +11
10/21-10/23
50%
40%
GOP +10
10/19-10/21
49%
45%
GOP +4
Ethridge Assoc
10/18-10/21
45%
36%
GOP +9
Last 4 Polls
Average
49.0%
40.5%
GOP +8.5

New Mason-Dixon has Alexander up 10 and the latest SurveyUSA poll has him up 11. Barring a GOP disaster on election day this race is over.

 

2002 Senate Races
2002 House Races
2002 Gubernatorial Races