Israel's prime minister,
Ariel Sharon, has suffered a massive brain hemorrhage; at the
very least, his long political career appears to be over. What
does that mean for Israeli politics and for Arab-Israeli relations?
Basically, it signals
a return to business as usual.
Since the State of
Israel came into existence in 1948, two points of view on relations
with the Arabs have dominated its political life, represented
by (as they are presently called) Labour on the left and Likud
on the right.
Labour argued for
greater flexibility and accommodation with the Arabs, Likud called
for a tougher stance. Every one of Israel's 11 prime ministers
came from the two of them, not a single one came from the plethora
of others. The two parties together suffered a long-term decline
in popularity but they jointly remained the pivots and kingmakers
of Israel electoral life.
Or so they did until
six weeks ago. On Nov. 21, Sharon left Likud and formed his own
party, called Kadima. He took this radical step in part because
his views vis-à-vis the Palestinians had evolved so far
from Likud's nationalist policies, as shown by his withdrawal
of Israeli forces and civilians from Gaza during mid-2005, that
he no longer fit there. Also, he had attained such personal popularity
that he attained the stature to found a party in his own image.
His move
was exquisitely timed and enormously successful. Instantly, the
polls showed Kadima effectively replacing Labour and Likud. The
latest survey,
conducted by "Dialogue" on Monday and published yesterday,
showed Kadima winning 42 seats of the 120 seats in the Knesset,
Israel's parliament. Labour followed with 19 seats and Likud trailing
behind with a dismal 14.
Kadima's stunning
success turned Israeli politics upside-down. The historic warhorses
had been so sidelined, one could speculate about Sharon forming
a government without even bothering to ally with one or other
of them.
Even more astonishing
was Sharon's personal authority in Kadima; never had Israel witnessed
the emergence of such a strongman. (And rarely do other mature
democracies; Pim Fortuyn in the Netherlands comes to mind as another
exception.) Sharon quickly lured to Kadima prominent Labour, Likud
and other politicians who shared little in common other than a
willingness to follow his lead.
It was a daredevil,
high-flying, net-less, bravura, acrobatic feat, one that would
last only so long as Sharon retained his magic touch. Or his health.
I
was skeptical of Kadima from the very start, dismissing it
just one week after it came into existence as an escapist venture
that "will (1) fall about as abruptly as it has arisen and
(2) leave behind a meager legacy." If Sharon's career is
now over, so is Kadima's. He created it, he ran it, he decided
its policies, and none else can now control its fissiparous elements.
Without Sharon, Kadima's constituent elements will drift back
to their old homes in Labour, Likud, and elsewhere. With a thud,
Israeli politics return to normal.
Likud, expected to
slip into a dismal third place in the March voting, stands the
most to gain from Sharon's exit. Kadima's members came disproportionately
from its ranks and now Likud conceivably could, under the forceful
leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu, do well enough to remain in
power. Likud's prospects look all the brighter given that Labour
has just elected a radical and untried new leader, Amir Peretz.
More broadly, the
sudden leftward turn of Israeli politics in the wake of Sharon's
personal turn to the left will stop and perhaps even be reversed.
Turning to Israeli
relations with the Palestinians, Sharon made monumental mistakes
in recent months. In particular, the withdrawal of all Israelis
from Gaza confirmed for Palestinians that violence works, prompting
a barrage of rockets on Israeli territory and an inflammation
of the political temperature.
As Israel
settles back to a more normal state, with no politician enjoying
Sharon's outsized popularity, governmental actions will again
come under closer scrutiny. The result is likely to be a less
escapist and more realist set of policies toward the Palestinians
and perhaps even some forward movement toward a resolution of
the Israeli-Palestinian war.
Postscript:
A poll
carried out for Israel Radio on January 4 – before
Sharon's medical emergency – asked "If Ariel Sharon
does not head Kadima in the elections, how would you vote?"
The results: 18 for Labor, 16 for Likud, 13 for Kadima.
The vote for other parties is not available.
Mr.
Pipes (www.DanielPipes.org)
is director of the Middle East Forum and author of Miniatures
(Transaction Publishers).
