October 20, 2005
Dealing with Syria
By Jack Kelly

On the morning of Oct. 12th, Syria's Interior minister, Maj. Gen. Ghazi Kanaan, was found dead in his office from a gunshot wound to the head. Kanaan's death was ruled a suicide, but there were doubters.

"For those of you who don't know what 'committed suicide' means in Syria, it means someone committed it for him," said Anton Efendi, an American PhD candidate who lives in Lebanon.

Kanaan was one of several Syrians questioned in the United Nations probe of the assassination of anti-Syrian Lebanese politician Rafik Hariri in February of last year. That assassination sparked massive protests, which led to withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, though intelligence operatives remained behind.

The day before Kanaan's death, four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals were arrested in connection with Hariri's murder.

Before becoming Interior minister, Kanaan had for 20 years been the chief Syrian intelligence officer in Lebanon.

"All high ranking Lebanese officials report directly to Kanaan and he has the final word on all major political and security decisions made by the Lebanese government," wrote Daniel Nassif in the Middle East Intelligence Bulletin in January, 2000.

Gebran Tueni, a member of Lebanon's parliament, told the Washington Post that Kanaan's death was "proof of Syria's involvement in Hariri's murder."

German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis has been conducting an investigation of Hariri's murder for the United Nations. Mehlis interviewed Ganaan in September. He is supposed to report the results of his investigation to the Security Council by Oct. 25th.

Mehlis is likely "to point to a Syrian role in the killing but call for another stage in the investigation, focusing on Damascus," reported Britain's Financial Times. "Diplomats say that if Syria fails to cooperate, it would face political and economic sanctions."

Some who think Kanaan's suicide was assisted speculate Assad didn't want the U.N. to hear what Kanaan might have had to say.

"(Kanaan) must be the most knowledgeable person in the world about Lebanon," said an editorial in the Lebanese newspaper Ya Libnan. "Having him as a witness in the UN investigation is of paramount importance to find out the truth about Hariri's murder."

But Joshua Landis, a University of Oklahoma professor currently living in Damascus, speculates Assad had Kanaan offed for fear Kanaan might lead a coup against him.

"Kanaan was the most senior Alawi (the minority sect to which the Assad family belongs) of the Hafiz's (Bashar's father) generation. He had served as intelligence chief and minister of interior giving him influence over and knowledge of all branches of the security services...If Washington were to turn to anyone to carry out a coup against Bashar, it would have to place Ghazi Kanaan on the top of its list," Landis wrote in his blog, 'SyriaComment.'

Landis thinks a coup is unlikely. But several of his Syrian correspondents say conditions have deteriorated so badly the alternative to a coup could be breakup of the country.

If the UN imposes economic sanctions, bad conditions in Syria will get worse.

The London Times reported Saturday that the Bush administration has -- through an Egyptian general -- offered Assad a "Gaddafi deal." The U.S. reestablished diplomatic relations with and lifted trade sanctions against Libya in 2003 after Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi agreed to give up his weapons of mass destruction.

The U.S. has offered to restore diplomatic and trade relations with Syria if Assad:

-- cooperates fully with the UN investigation of Hariri's death;
-- turns over for trial any regime members named as suspects;
-- stops interfering in Lebanon, and
-- stops supporting the terrorists in Iraq.

"Assad is desperately seeking a way out," an Arab diplomat told the London Times.

But most observers think Bashar Assad will reject the deal, either because he thinks he can survive despite pressure from the U.S. and the U.N., or because he isn't really in charge of the country.

However, the success of the constitutional referendum in Iraq, coupled with inability of the insurgents to disrupt it, means Bush can now devote considerable attention -- and if need be, troops -- to the problem of Syria.

The goal seems to be to "get (the regime) by the throat, and then really squeeze," Landis said.

Jack Kelly is national security columnist for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and the Blade of Toledo, Ohio.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-10_20_05_JKE.html