October 20, 2005
Dealing with Syria
By Jack
Kelly
On the morning
of Oct. 12th, Syria's Interior minister, Maj. Gen. Ghazi Kanaan,
was found dead in his office from a gunshot wound to the head.
Kanaan's death was ruled a suicide, but there were doubters.
"For
those of you who don't know what 'committed suicide' means in
Syria, it means someone committed it for him," said Anton
Efendi, an American PhD candidate who lives in Lebanon.
Kanaan was
one of several Syrians questioned in the United Nations probe
of the assassination of anti-Syrian Lebanese politician Rafik
Hariri in February of last year. That assassination sparked massive
protests, which led to withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon,
though intelligence operatives remained behind.
The day before
Kanaan's death, four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals were arrested
in connection with Hariri's murder.
Before becoming
Interior minister, Kanaan had for 20 years been the chief Syrian
intelligence officer in Lebanon.
"All
high ranking Lebanese officials report directly to Kanaan and
he has the final word on all major political and security decisions
made by the Lebanese government," wrote Daniel Nassif in
the Middle East Intelligence Bulletin in January, 2000.
Gebran Tueni,
a member of Lebanon's parliament, told the Washington Post
that Kanaan's death was "proof of Syria's involvement in
Hariri's murder."
German prosecutor
Detlev Mehlis has been conducting an investigation of Hariri's
murder for the United Nations. Mehlis interviewed Ganaan in September.
He is supposed to report the results of his investigation to the
Security Council by Oct. 25th.
Mehlis is
likely "to point to a Syrian role in the killing but call
for another stage in the investigation, focusing on Damascus,"
reported Britain's Financial Times. "Diplomats say
that if Syria fails to cooperate, it would face political and
economic sanctions."
Some who
think Kanaan's suicide was assisted speculate Assad didn't want
the U.N. to hear what Kanaan might have had to say.
"(Kanaan)
must be the most knowledgeable person in the world about Lebanon,"
said an editorial in the Lebanese newspaper Ya Libnan.
"Having him as a witness in the UN investigation is of paramount
importance to find out the truth about Hariri's murder."
But Joshua
Landis, a University of Oklahoma professor currently living in
Damascus, speculates Assad had Kanaan offed for fear Kanaan might
lead a coup against him.
"Kanaan
was the most senior Alawi (the minority sect to which the Assad
family belongs) of the Hafiz's (Bashar's father) generation. He
had served as intelligence chief and minister of interior giving
him influence over and knowledge of all branches of the security
services...If Washington were to turn to anyone to carry out a
coup against Bashar, it would have to place Ghazi Kanaan on the
top of its list," Landis wrote in his blog, 'SyriaComment.'
Landis thinks
a coup is unlikely. But several of his Syrian correspondents say
conditions have deteriorated so badly the alternative to a coup
could be breakup of the country.
If the UN
imposes economic sanctions, bad conditions in Syria will get worse.
The London
Times reported Saturday that the Bush administration has
-- through an Egyptian general -- offered Assad a "Gaddafi
deal." The U.S. reestablished diplomatic relations with and
lifted trade sanctions against Libya in 2003 after Libyan strongman
Muammar Gaddafi agreed to give up his weapons of mass destruction.
The U.S.
has offered to restore diplomatic and trade relations with Syria
if Assad:
-- cooperates
fully with the UN investigation of Hariri's death;
-- turns over for trial any regime members named as suspects;
-- stops interfering in Lebanon, and
-- stops supporting the terrorists in Iraq.
"Assad
is desperately seeking a way out," an Arab diplomat told
the London Times.
But most
observers think Bashar Assad will reject the deal, either because
he thinks he can survive despite pressure from the U.S. and the
U.N., or because he isn't really in charge of the country.
However,
the success of the constitutional referendum in Iraq, coupled
with inability of the insurgents to disrupt it, means Bush can
now devote considerable attention -- and if need be, troops --
to the problem of Syria.
The goal
seems to be to "get (the regime) by the throat, and then
really squeeze," Landis said.
Jack
Kelly is national security columnist for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
and the Blade of Toledo, Ohio.
