Monday
August 1 2005
HILLARY'S CONUNDRUM: She wins every 2008 primary poll
by at least a two-to-one margin over her closest competitor and
is considered by most everyone in the political universe (at this
admittedly early stage) to be an absolute shoo-in
for the nomination. Beyond this piece of conventional wisdom,
however, things get murky pretty fast.
There is
considerable disagreement among Democrats as to whether Hillary,
once nominated, will be able to seal the deal. Clinton-o-phile
Harold Ickes told Time Magazine late last year he doesn't
think she can get it done.
More recently,
Ruy Teixeira, co-author of The Emerging Democratic Majority, told
the Daily
News that "people don't like to come out and say
it because they don't like to tick her off, but privately most
people don't think she can win."
We're seeing
an excessive amount of chatter at the moment about whether Hillary's
recent
cozying up to the DLC or a looming vote in favor of John Roberts
will cost her support with the hard left base of the party. By
the time 2008 rolls around, however, none of this stuff will matter.
As Jacob
Weisberg wrote on Friday, Hillary's problem isn't that she's
too liberal or too centrist, or that she's a woman, or that her
husband is who he is. "Plainly put," Weisberg says,
"it's her personality." He continues:
"[Hillary]
lacks a key quality that a politician can't achieve through
hard work: likability. As hard as she tries, Hillary has little
facility for connecting with ordinary folk, for making them
feel that she understands, identifies, and is at some level
one of them. You may admire and respect her. But it's hard not
to find Hillary a bit inhuman. Whatever she may be like in private,
her public persona is calculating, clenched, relentless—and
a little robotic...
In
American elections, affection matters. Democrats lost in 2000
and 2004 with candidates Main Street regarded as elitist and
aloof, to a candidate voters related to personally. Hillary
isn't as obnoxious as Gore or as off-putting as Kerry. But she's
got the same damn problem, and it can't be fixed."
Go read this
lament from a liberal diarist over at Daily Kos to see just
how right Weisberg is and just how much of an obstacle Hillary's
public persona is going to be to her hope of becoming president
in 2008.
ARE
WE THERE YET?: A rather humorous question from the FOX
News/Opinion Dynamics poll released last Thursday:
34. If
you were taking a cross-country driving trip, which one of the
following people would you most like to take along? (RANDOMIZE)
|
All |
Dem |
Rep |
Ind |
| George
W. Bush |
24% |
7% |
47% |
19% |
| Hillary
Clinton |
20% |
37% |
7% |
12% |
| John
McCain |
15% |
13% |
14% |
22% |
| Rudy
Giuliani |
15% |
7% |
21% |
18% |
| John
Kerry |
5% |
12% |
1% |
2% |
| Ted
Kennedy |
5% |
8% |
2% |
4% |
| All |
2% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
| Wouldn't
Go/None |
8% |
8% |
4% |
14% |
| Other |
2% |
1% |
2% |
3% |
| Don't
Know |
5% |
6% |
2% |
5% |
Which is
more amusing: that twelve percent of Democrats want to spend roughly
five days in close confinement listening to John Kerry drone on
or that eight percent of Democrats are willing to let themselves
get anywhere near a car containing Ted Kennedy?
QUOTE
OF THE DAY: "This is fiscal discipline? No wonder
the federal budget is such a mess. We can't even force ourselves
to spend highway money on highways." -
Rep. John Boehner (R-OH), highlighting a $2.5 million piece
of pork in the highway bill earmarked for "freeway landscaping"
in California.
- T. Bevan 11:15 am Link
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