Wednesday,
October 19 2005
ELECTION 2005 - VIRGINIA: The Virginia gubernatorial
race is going right down to the wire. Every poll taken in the
last month has the race within the margin of error, but at the
moment the trend looks to be favoring the Democrat Tim Kaine.
Our current RCP Avg
of the three most recent polls has Kaine (D) at 44.0%, Kilgore
(R) at 43.7%, and Potts (I) at 3.7%.
A couple
of interesting notes: the latest Rasmussen poll (10/10-11) shows
a two-point move toward Kilgore versus the previous sample (9/28),
while the latest SurveyUSA poll (10/14-16) shows a 5-point swing
in favor of Kaine versus their last poll (9/8-18). Further complicating
matters is the most recent Diageo/Hotline poll which has Kaine
ahead of Kilgore by 1 point (41-40) among likely voters but behind
by 1 point (42-41) when the screen is tightened to "extremely"
likely voters. Obviously, this one's going to be all about turnout.
On the money
front, the latest
fundraising numbers are out, and while Kilgore raised more
than Kaine last month ($2.7 million vs. $2.2 million), the campaigns
have a virtually identical amount of cash-on-hand for the final
three weeks of the race ($5.3 million for Kilgore, $5.2 million
for Kaine).
The Kilgore
campaign put two
news ads into rotation this week, one focusing on domestic
violence and the other featuring Senator George Allen. These ads
are running along with the death penalty ads that caused such
controversy last week.
Finally,
the Virginian Pilot runs a profile of Independent
Russell Potts this morning. Yesterday Potts
declared he would remain in the race "till the last dog
dies." That's seemingly bad news for Kilgore because most
consider Potts - despite the fact he favors higher taxes and said
as governor he would strongly endorse retaining Roe v. Wade if
it ever was thrown back to the states - to be a Perot-like figure
who is more of a drag on Kilgore's campaign than on Kaine's. In
a race this close, Potts' candidacy could make all the difference
in the world.
Bookmark
our VA
Governor's Page to stay on top of the latest polls, news,
and commentary in the home stretch of this race. - T.
Bevan 9:45 am Link | Email
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