Wednesday, October 19 2005
ELECTION 2005 - VIRGINIA:
The Virginia gubernatorial race is going right down to the wire. Every poll taken in the last month has the race within the margin of error, but at the moment the trend looks to be favoring the Democrat Tim Kaine. Our current RCP Avg of the three most recent polls has Kaine (D) at 44.0%, Kilgore (R) at 43.7%, and Potts (I) at 3.7%.

A couple of interesting notes: the latest Rasmussen poll (10/10-11) shows a two-point move toward Kilgore versus the previous sample (9/28), while the latest SurveyUSA poll (10/14-16) shows a 5-point swing in favor of Kaine versus their last poll (9/8-18). Further complicating matters is the most recent Diageo/Hotline poll which has Kaine ahead of Kilgore by 1 point (41-40) among likely voters but behind by 1 point (42-41) when the screen is tightened to "extremely" likely voters. Obviously, this one's going to be all about turnout.

On the money front, the latest fundraising numbers are out, and while Kilgore raised more than Kaine last month ($2.7 million vs. $2.2 million), the campaigns have a virtually identical amount of cash-on-hand for the final three weeks of the race ($5.3 million for Kilgore, $5.2 million for Kaine).

The Kilgore campaign put two news ads into rotation this week, one focusing on domestic violence and the other featuring Senator George Allen. These ads are running along with the death penalty ads that caused such controversy last week.

Finally, the Virginian Pilot runs a profile of Independent Russell Potts this morning. Yesterday Potts declared he would remain in the race "till the last dog dies." That's seemingly bad news for Kilgore because most consider Potts - despite the fact he favors higher taxes and said as governor he would strongly endorse retaining Roe v. Wade if it ever was thrown back to the states - to be a Perot-like figure who is more of a drag on Kilgore's campaign than on Kaine's. In a race this close, Potts' candidacy could make all the difference in the world.

Bookmark our VA Governor's Page to stay on top of the latest polls, news, and commentary in the home stretch of this race. - T. Bevan 9:45 am Link | Email | Send To A Friend

 



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